Research
Research
Original studies of market structure, built on samples that include their own failures. Every finding ships with its method, its caveats, and the things we tested and found nothing in. Descriptive, not advice.
- We tested the obvious AI story. It didn't survive. A predefined cohort of 31 AI, data-center and power companies rose 0.016 in median turbulence between May 13 and August 4. The other 327 companies rose 0.016. The category everyone was writing about did not move as a bloc. The largest individual increases were Lumentum, Western Digital, Corning, Teradyne and Ciena — optics, interconnect, memory and test equipment rather than the chip designers.
- A third of crypto's top 300 is dead — and the calm ones died most Sort crypto assets by volatility and the calmest band dies at more than twice the rate of the next-calmest. Split that band by trading activity and it is 11.8% a year against 1.3% — identical volatility, nine times the mortality. The safest-looking assets in crypto are often just the ones nobody is trading any more.
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