Explainers

The concepts, in plain language

Short, durable explainers of the terms the reads lean on. No jargon for its own sake, and nothing here is a recommendation.

The four turbulence bands, and what a wide one means
Turbulence sorts every company into Low, Elevated, High, or Extreme. The band measures the range of recent outcomes, not their direction. Here is how to read it.
Warming: when a stock's turbulence is still rising
Warming is Filter Lab's term for a company whose measured turbulence is still increasing. In traditional terms it is closest to expanding realized volatility, but it describes the trend in a stock's range rather than its level.
What high-yield credit spreads tell you
The extra yield investors demand to hold risky corporate debt is one of the cleanest reads on market stress. Tight spreads mean calm, wide spreads mean the opposite.
Hot Share: how much of the market sits in the top turbulence bands
Hot Share is Filter Lab's term for the percent of the tracked universe sitting in the top two turbulence bands, High or Extreme. It is a structural read of market breadth: how broadly turbulence is spread across individual companies, rather than an index-level volatility number.
Reading the yield curve
The gap between long and short Treasury yields is a compact read on where the market thinks rates and growth are headed. Inverted, flat, or steep each says something.
CPI and core PCE: reading inflation
Two inflation gauges get quoted constantly. They measure slightly different things, and the Fed watches one more than the other. Here is how to read them as a trend.